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Technical expert Leo Fasciocco seeks stocks that have broken out from technical basing patterns or those he feels are poised to make such a breakout, such as Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), which has a "breakout level at $50."

The editor of Ticker Tape Digest explains, "Gilead Sciences, with annual revenues of $4.2 billion, makes therapies to treat life-threatening infectious diseases. It focuses on pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases.

"The company has four products -- Viread, Emtriva, combination pill Truvada, and triple combination Atripla -- in its HIV franchise, as well as Hepsera for hepatitis B. GILD recently received approval for pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Letairis, acquired from Myogen.

"The stock has climbed from $10 to $47 the past five years. It is one of the few stocks now that is knocking on the door of making a new high. With earnings growth to be solid this year and next, we see GILD in a good spot to be accumulated in anticipation of a breakout.

"Technically, the stock's long-term chart shows it is a steady climber. It has been able to work higher without any significant pull back. So, the stock has been consistent. Near-term, we see a 'double-bottom' basing pattern.

"The base was formed after the stock advanced from $36 back in August to a peak near $48. The structure of the base is good showing a contraction in volume at the recent lows. Also, the recent largest volume days came when the stock closed higher in price. That is bullish.

"The stock's technicals are surprisingly strong given the weakness in the stock market the past several months. The momentum indicator is very bullish. And the accumulation-distribution line is near a new peak.

"This year, analysts predict GILD will post a 14% increase in net to $1.92 a share from $1.68 a year ago. Earnings growth should accelerate modestly in 2009 to 17% with net hitting $2.25 a share compared with the anticipated $1.92 for this year.

"Revenue growth is currently running at 22%. For the upcoming first quarter, analysts are forecasting a 13% gain in net to 48 cents a share from 43 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 52 cents a share. The past four quarters GILD has tended to either meet or top by 5 cents a share the consensus Street estimate. In late February, GILD put in place a $500 million stock buy back plan.

"Our strategy opinion is that GILD is a strong acting stock. With its breakout over $50, we are targeting GILD for a move to $60. A protective stop can be placed near $45. We view this as an intermediate-term play.

"The stock's sponsorship is very good. The largest fund buyer lately was 5-star rated Columbia Marsico 21st Century Fund which purchased 1.5 million shares. Also, 5-star rated Janus Twenty Fund was a recent buyer of 521,000 shares."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Both articles gave some very basic rules on how to spot reversals while recommending investors cut their losses quickly and let their winners run. And, both articles were released mid-week around the same time of day. Yet the article about stocks making new lows turned out to be more than seven times as popular!

Why do you think that is? Sure, they're slightly more actively traded, but I believe investors are not comfortable buying into or holding commodity plays because they've already gone up so much. But they're perfectly willing to go down with the ship on blue chip brokers and technology plays, sometimes even doubling and worse, tripling up because they're invested in such "quality companies."

If I'm right, as Cher would say, snap out of it! Forget those bubble years of the past; technology -- and certainly financial -- won't be making exponential comebacks anytime soon. The trend is your friend until the trendline breaks -- oh yes, technical analysis works because it pertains directly to your investment's value. Fundamental analysis is all well and good in the long run, but it won't save you from potentially mammoth short-term losses!

I'm listing all 20 stocks, good and bad, because nothing much has changed since. Yes, some stocks have dropped and bounced a bit, but the overarching trends remain intact. So, you suffering longs have no choice but to click these strange stocks to see what uptrending charts look like, and you trend-following investors who are loving life can laugh while you see how the other half lives.

Uptrending = Good!

• AK STEEL (NYSE: AKS)
• Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD)
• United States Oil (AMEX: USO)
• Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK)
• Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
• streetTRACKS Gold (NYSE: GLD)
• Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST)
• Converted Organics (NASDAQ: COIN)
• Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD)

Downtrending = Bad!

• Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM)
• Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM)
• Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER)
• Citigroup (NYSE: C)
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT)
• Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S)
• Ebay (NASDAQ: EBAY)
• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU)
• Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX)

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund

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• Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) was upgraded by Deutsche Securities from Holdto Buy. MT shares are up 3.75% in premarket trading.
• Imclone (NASDAQ: IMCL) was upgraded at Cowen & Co from Neutralto Outperform.
• Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) was downgraded by UBS from Buyto Neutral , and the target price lowered from $55 to $56
• Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was downgraded by Bernstein from Outperformto Mkt Perform

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"Of all the stocks that I follow and recommend, there is one stock above all others that I have favored for years, and still do: Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD)," says biotechnology sector expert Michael Shulman.

In his industry-leading ChangeWave Biotech Investor, he explains, "I have owned it for a very-long time and it is fast-growing and rock solid among all of the market uncertainty. When that uncertainty ends, GILD will still be a fast-grower in a recessionary economy."

"The company is a commanding market leader in HIV treatments, sells and collects royalties on other antivirals for flu and Hepatitis B. Gilead recently announced earnings and it had profits of $402 million or 41 cents a share, topping analyst estimates by a penny. It also saw sales grow 22% to $1.1 billion. Despite several product launches and increased clinical trial expenses, the company's cash position doubled to $2.7 billion.

"On a conference call, management said that 2008 would be a very good year, with product sales in the range of $4.7 billion to $4.8 billion. That's more than a 25% increase over 2007 product sales and higher than analyst expectations of $4.6 billion.

"Growth was driven by HIV drug sales, which were up 35% last quarter to $864 million. Management does not guide profit expectations, but the Street has those profits at around $1.88 billion, and Gilead has beaten expectations 14 out of the last 15 quarters.

"Gilead bought Corus Pharmaceuticals and Myogen Inc. -- and GILD has made these acquisitions work for it. With them, Gilead has a new drug for pulmonary arterial hypertension, Letairis, and a potential new drug for cystic fibrosis infections awaiting approval from the FDA.

"Gilead expects an approval for the cystic fibrosis drug and also for its lead HIV drug, Atripla -- recently approved in Europe. Another drug should complete Phase II trials this year, as well. All of these catalysts will supercharge GILD and lead to double-digit sales and profit growth. At current valuations, the stock is cheap, as I believe Gilead will earn in the vicinity of $2 to $2.20 this year, giving it a P/E of 20-22.

"The market is also looking for big-cap names in life sciences, and money is flowing their way, so I expect multiple expansions to hit the stock once the market has stabilized a bit.

"One wildcard in the profits picture is Tamiflu. Gilead gets an 18%-22% royalty on it, and sales by Roche have slowed markedly as pandemic flu fears recede and governments are pulling back on stockpiling the drug. The other wildcard is a stock buyback or new acquisition by GILD. The former would goose the stock, the latter would depress it temporarily.

"The bottom line is that Gilead is a great company and a great stock building a strong base. It's facing several big catalysts and upside earnings surprises in 2008."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• BMO Capital initiated coverage on Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) and Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) with Outperform ratings and a $16 target and $51 target and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) and Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) with Market Perform ratings and a $69 target and $85 target.
  
• CIBC initiated shares of WESCO International Inc. (NYSE: WCC) with a Sector Outperformer rating and $46 target. The firm believes lower estimates are already priced into shares and that the company's operating initiatives increase the chances for more stable margins in this environment.
  
• Deutsche Bank started shares of Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (NYSE: WYN) with a Buy rating and $41 target. The firm believes stability of the timeshare industry, international expansion and improved transparency will serve as catalysts for shares.
  
• Century Casinos Inc. (NASDAQ: CNTY) was initiated at Nollenberger with a Neutral rating, citing the underperformance of new properties and concerns from the smoking ban in Colorado; however, the firm believes the company is headed in the right direction.

• Soleil started shares of Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) with Buy ratings and targets of $96 and $88, and initiated shares of Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) with a Hold rating and $55 target.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw started shares of Labopharm Inc. (NASDAQ: DDSS) with a Market Perform rating.
  
• UBS resumed coverage on Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) with a Buy rating and $34 target.

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MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Merrill Lynch upgraded Kelly Services Inc (NASDAQ: KELYA) to Neutral from Sell and Iron Mountain Incorporated (NYSE: IRM) to Buy from Neutral after they adjusted estimates in the group to reflect risks of a recession in the U.S.
  
• AG Edwards upgraded shares of Covenant Transportation Group (NASDAQ: CVTI) to Buy from Hold as they believe the stock is oversold after the company was able to renegotiate its debt covenants without significant cost increases.
• Bernstein upgraded the biotech sector citing valuation and typical seasonality for the group. The firm reiterated shares of Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN), Genentech Inc (NYSE: DNA), Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) with Outperform ratings...

• Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wedbush. The firm also upgraded shares of Kenexa Corporation (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Buy from Hold.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of United Microelectronics (NYSE: UMC) to Buy from Hold.
  
• UBS upgraded shares of Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
  
• Lehman Brothers upped regulated utilities to Neutral from Negative, and Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) and Wisconsin Energy Corporation (NYSE: WEC) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

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MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Soleil upgraded shares of Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to Buy from Hold as they believe the new management team has quickly taken multiple steps to address key issues and is refocusing on profitable growth.

• Morgan Keegan raised Greenbrier Cos (NYSE: GBX) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's Q3 report.

• Citigroup upgraded shares of DirecTV Group Inc (NYSE: DTV) to Buy from Hold as they see a 75% chance that Liberty Media (LCAPA) tenders for DTV within the next 12 months and could offer $30 a share for the company.

• JP Morgan upgraded General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) to Overweight from Neutral with a $50 target and Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) to Overweight from Underweight as they see signs that unions will engage in radical changes, which could bring EPS upside. General Motors was also added to JP Morgan's Focus List...

• Jefferies raised Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) to Buy from Hold.

• Cowen added shares of Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) to its Focus List.

• Friedman Billings added Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) to its Top Pick list.

• Buckingham upgraded shares of American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) to Accumulate from Neutral.

• Gabelli upgraded shares of Gemstar-TV Guide International (NASDAQ: GMST) to Buy from Hold.

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"If you combine the growth of a small company with the financial muscle of a large company and put them in a single syringe, you get Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD)," says Jon Markman.

Gilead, he notes, which develops and markets drugs for patients suffering from HIV, Hepatitis B and other life-threatening illnesses, is an emerging giant of the biotech world." Indeed, the company is best known for its leading HIV treatments.

In his Strategic Advantage, the advisor says, "I like their current drug portfolio, but I am just as impressed with its pipeline of new therapies. In the first quarter of 2007, GILD reported a earnings growth of 55%, with sales of Hepsera, a hepatitis drug, up 35%."

He notes that sales of HIV drugs rose by 56%. He adds, "The picture for the rest of the year and 2008 look equally bright for GILD, as it has quite a number of similarly strong drug candidates in trials."

Meanwhile, he observes, the company has just come into the spotlight again due to new scientific findings about Ambrisentan, a drug created to treat Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension. He explains, "PAH, as it is known to docs, creates an increase in blood pressure in patients' arteries."

Symptoms of PAH, he notes, include shortness of breath, fainting and dizziness. Ambrisentan, he explains, is in a new group of drugs known as endothelin receptor antagonists, basically blocks the body's endothelin receptors, which results in lowered blood pressure and increased energy.

Markman notes that patients receiving Ambrisentan increased their one-year probability of survival to 95%. Further, he states that an analyst at PiperJaffray reported that conversations with 15 physicians who treat PAH showed unanimous agreement that Ambrisentan will be their choice in oral therapy for newly diagnosed patients due to its apparent safety and efficacy advantage over rivals.

Meanwhile, he points out that the in February the FDA granted priority review for Ambrisentan, indicating that it would review its application sooner than usual.

The FDA, he suggests, has set a target date of June 18 this year for completion of the review. If approved, he notes, Ambrisentan is likely to ultimately generate over a $1 billion in sales annually. Says Markman, "This would be a huge new earnings driver for GILD and another good reason to buy.

The advisors estimate for 2008 is $3.80 per share. He says, "Put a 27X multiple on that, which is the historical median multiple for the company, and you get a target of $102 per share for next year. That is 25% above the current price, which makes GILD a great buy now and on dips."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Friedman Billings started Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with an Outperform rating and $53 target.

• Teekay Offshore (NYSE: TOO) was initiated with a Hold rating and $30 target by Deutsche Bank based on valuation.

• Banc of America noted that if approved, Auxilium Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ: AUXL) lead candidate, AA4500, could become a first-in-class therapy, with an over-$800M sales potential in niche markets, with no competition. Bank of America started AUXL with a Buy rating and $22 target.

• Northwest Airlines (OTC: NWACQ) was initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal Weight rating...

• Banc of America assumed coverage of Gilead Sciences, Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) with a Buy rating and increased its target to $94 from $90. Banc of America also started Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc (NASDAQ: ARNA), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc (NASDAQ: AMLN) and Celgene Corp (NASDAQ: CELG) with Neutral ratings.

• Credit Suisse assumed coverage of RF Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ: RFMD) with an Outperform rating.

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With the announcements this morning that Cerberus Capital Management LP, a $24 billion investment firm, will buy 80.1% of Chrysler for $7.4 billion, it's officially a trend that private equity is in the driver's seat. Cerberus already owns 51% of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM)'s GMAC -- the Finance unit -- and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F)'s founding family wants to sell out. Why does private equity find the automobile business so appealing?

There's an interesting side issue going on here: founding families are realizing that now is the time to sell. This topic is being covered in excruciating detail [subscription] with the proposed merger between News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Dow Jones & Company Inc. (NYSE: DJ).

Founding families have it great. They can clip million dollar annual coupons and spend their time riding motorcycles and playing tennis. But selling out means giving up on that lifestyle. So the willingness of founding families to sell spells trouble for public equity investors. Here's why:

• Unstoppable business and stock slowdown. In the automobile and newspaper industries, new management, new strategies, and restructuring have all failed to revive sick companies with stagnant stock prices. For investors, this means that unless you can find a company in the industry that is bucking the trend -- such as Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), you should get out.
• Realization that takeout prices can only go down from here. Founding families are realizing that the availability of equity and debt to finance going private is so high that they will likely never be offered a better price to take their money and run. Given the deteriorating condition of the companies that finance those dividend checks, many founding families are beginning to recognize that now could be the best time to get out.

As far as why private equity finds the automobile industry appealing right now, there are a few possibilities:

• Private cost cutting. According to Bloomberg News, Cerberus -- which is buying an operation that lost $672 million last year -- expects to profit on its investment by reducing wages and paring pension expenses.
• Resolving founding family conflicts. If a private equity firm offers a high enough price, the generational conflict between the founding families' aged parents and their children -- such as the one facing Ford -- could be resolved. Unfortunately, the higher the price, the harder it is for the private equity firm to make an attractive return.

Thus private equity might be best off buying bonds and seeking to control the company out of bankruptcy. And ultimately it is the threat of bankruptcy that could focus the minds of both generations. With private equity in the driver's seat, the future does not look good for public shareholders in the automobile industry.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.

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Following its latest earnings report, Bill Martin notes, "Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) has shown once again showed that its HIV drug franchise is truly best-in-class."

The editor of the FindProfit trading service reports that Gilead earned a profit of $407.4 million, or 85 cents per share. Excluding stock-based compensation, he notes, EPS was 93 cents.

He also notes that analysts were looking for EPS of 80 cents per share. Meanwhile, revenues jumped 49% to $1.03 billion from $692.9 million a year ago, and above the consensus of $990 million.

The advisor explains, "Gilead saw great overall growth among its anti-HIV drugs. Truvada, which accounted for 41% of GILD's product sales, led the way with a 39% year-over-year increase in sales."

He points out that Atripla is the combination of Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sustiva and Gilead's Truvada. The latter is a combination of Gilead drugs, Emtriva and Viread.

Martin notes, "The continued solid growth of Truvada sales after the launch of Atripla indicates that this drug may not totally cannibalize the sales of Truvada and GILD's other older anti-HIV drugs."

Meanwhile, the advisor notes that the overall biotech sector has been making a "nice comeback of late," and GILD has been a strong performer. He says, "With management leaving its conservative guidance intact, we think the stock has room to 'surprise' to the upside later this year.

He also sees the stock as defensive and notes, "If the economy is showing signs of peaking, a stock like GILD is a good candidate to outperform the market."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Prudential upgraded Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE: ENR) to Neutral from Underweight. The firm said Energizer has been overly focused on the negative potential of cost inflation without fully appreciating the positive mix shift being generated by faster growth of high-margin specialty products and new products that indicate innovation and a competitive edge.

• Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink Swann following Gilead's strong quarter.

• FTN Midwest upgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to Buy from Neutral as the firm believes they are seeing the beginnings of a truce with between the two companies which could lead to higher ASPs.

• CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan to reflect the company's prospects for production growth.

• Stifel raised shares of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (NYSE: WRE) to Buy from Hold with a $42 target.

• AG Edwards upgraded FARO Technologies, Inc (NASDAQ: FARO) to Buy from Hold.

• William Blair upgraded Illinois Tool Works, Inc (NYSE: ITW) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• JP Morgan added J.C. Penney Co (NYSE: JCP) to its Focus List.

• Matrix USA upgraded shares of Henry Schein, Inc (NASDAQ: HSIC) to Buy from Hold on valuation.

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